What will happen to Chechnya after Kadyrov announced a serious illness? Experts are worried

Independent news outlet Novaya Gazeta Europe reported on Monday that Ramzan Kadyrov, Chechnya's leader, has been living with a potentially fatal illness for more than five years, prompting the Kremlin to begin work on a plan for a managed transfer of power.

In the first part of its investigation into the political landscape in the North Caucasus republic, Novaya Gazeta Europe detailed 47-year-old Kadyrov's numerous hospitalizations for suspected pancreatic necrosis, and how he and the Kremlin's PR team tried to cover up the Chechen leader's actions. rapidly deteriorating condition.

The publication also named Major General Apti Alaudinov, commander of Kadyrov's own military unit Akhmat, fighting in Ukraine, as the Kremlin's preferred successor.

To make sense of the high-profile investigation that has highlighted one of Russia's most volatile regions, The Moscow Times asked leading experts and activists to share their first impressions and predictions about the future of Chechnya after Kadyrov.

“I have great respect for my colleagues from Novaya Gazeta, who have been looking at Chechnya with full professional dedication for many years and are really quite knowledgeable about Chechnya. At the same time… Kadyrov is still very far from death,” Lokshina told The Moscow Times.

“I think what is important now is that Kadyrov’s position in Chechnya is very strong. And we are not just talking about Kadyrov as a sole dictator… If he dies or his health deteriorates and he cannot continue to fulfill his duties, there are many people behind him who will continue their activities. in the same spirit,” Lokshina said.

“The abuses that we have been documenting in Chechnya for many years, the abuses committed with complete impunity, the absolute lack of freedom for which modern Chechnya is notorious, will not disappear if Kadyrov disappears.”

“Chechen activists, oppositionists and dissidents have discussed the behavior of Apti Alaudinov, the ambitions of [chairman of the Chechen parliament] Magomed Daudov, as well as Kadyrov’s children… and his health, at least in the past year,” Yangulbaev told The Moscow Times. . “So nothing in this investigation surprised me.”

Yangulbaev said he believes Alaudinov, who was named in the investigation, is just one of several potential successors to Kadyrov, who, if chosen, would simply retain his seat until Kadyrov's eldest son, now 18, reaches reaches the age of majority and will not become his successor.

According to Yangulbaev, Alaudinov's role will be reminiscent of that of Chechnya's second president, Alu Alkhanov, who replaced Ramzan Kadyrov after the assassination of his father Akhmad Kadyrov in 2004.

“Alaudinov will be like this. He can only temporarily guard [Kadyrov’s son’s] seat because he has no authority in the eyes of the Chechen people and especially in the eyes of Kadyrov’s men, who are trained as service dogs,” Yangulbaev said.

“Intuitively, I don’t expect any changes now,” Yangulbaev said, answering a question about whether Kadyrov’s sudden death could plunge Chechnya into chaos. “But these things usually happen unpredictably and unexpectedly.”

“The assessment of Alaudinov’s viability seemed implausible to me because it was divorced from his own history, the internal dynamics of the Kadyrov regime, the internal politics of the Kadyrov regime and the regime’s relationship with Moscow,” Chambers said of the Novaya Gazeta Europe investigation. “They viewed Chechnya as another federal subject, rather than the personal fiefdom of the Kadyrov family, with the corresponding development of internal formal and informal structures.”

Chambers said he believes Chechnya is unlikely to descend into chaos unless there is regime change in the Kremlin before Kadyrov leaves power.

“I expect stability no matter how the succession is handled. However, underneath the facade of propaganda, there will likely be a struggle over the division of responsibilities and power, unless one of Kadyrov’s sons is ready to take on the role of governor,” he told The Moscow Times.

“Despite this, Kadyrov's death will certainly create a perceived window of opportunity for the resumption of a larger conflict, meaning that there will likely be a surge in fighting activity. I say 'perceived' because there is a chance that the chain of command will remain unbroken – I suspect that this issue has already been resolved to some extent, and probably has been for a long time."

“I’m conflicted about this story [published by Novaya Gazeta Europe],” Klyshch told The Moscow Times.

“On the one hand, this story really brings together many of the points that we noticed earlier and that were picked up by [other] media and analysts. I trust Novaya Gazeta… but it is also a story that can be manipulated for disinformation purposes. They have promised that there will be more reports, so I will reserve my decision until more evidence is presented."

Klyshch said that he was “not convinced” that Apti Alaudinov from the Akhmat detachment could become a potential successor to Kadyrov.

“Based on the way Kadyrov initially received his post – that it was a kind of dynastic succession – I firmly believe that the successor will be, if not Kadyrov’s child, then at least someone incredibly close to him,” Klyshch said.

“Precedents like this are very important. They really shape how actors think about how continuity can be done. Of course, this does not exclude the possibility of other paths and other results.”