The fall in demand for Russian metal in the US is not critical for Russia

According to research of world markets conducted by MetalResearch managing analyst Georgy Goncharov, before 2022 and the introduction of strict restrictions, the USA was not a major consumer of Russian non-ferrous, ferrous metals and especially metal concentrates. However, in relation to the world market, the USA occupies a significant position among consumers.

Based on preliminary data, the expert estimates that in 2024, the volume of imports of metal concentrates to the United States increased by 3.7 percent, to $3.6 billion. At the same time, according to the US Customs Service, the share of concentrates imported from Russia was less than 1 percent even in 2021. Among the main supplier countries to the United States in 2024 were Canada, Peru, South Africa, Brazil, and Australia. Thus, Goncharov believes that Russian supplies of metal concentrates to the United States did not have any significant impact on the market until 2022 and will not have any later.

"Imports of ferrous metallurgy products (cast iron, semi-finished steel products and goods) to the United States in 2024, according to preliminary data, do not look very optimistic," Goncharov points out. In general, imports of these products decreased by 1.1 percent, to $32.8 billion. The main suppliers were Canada, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, and Germany. Russia's share in ferrous metallurgy products was also not very significant for the United States until 2022. In 2021, it was less than 8 percent, and in all subsequent years it has been steadily declining.

According to Gleb Miklashevsky, an expert in the preparation of metal structures production, the most popular products of Russian ferrous metallurgy in foreign markets are raw materials and semi-finished products, not finished rolled metal. According to the expert, this is due to the insufficiently high quality of Russian metal in terms of its chemical heterogeneity and flatness in the delivery condition.

According to Goncharov, the real reason for the decline in Russian metal exports to the United States is not the sanctions restrictions, but high transportation costs. The reduction of Russia's already small share in supplies to the United States will have almost no effect on either the overall import of metals and products to the country or on exports from Russia. In turn, Miklashevsky attributes the decline in exports to a slight cooling of the global steel consumption market, which occurred in 2024. In addition, the expert believes that the US market has not been that large lately. For comparison, out of 1.7 billion tons of global steel consumption in 2024, 869 million tons came from China.

In terms of steel smelting, Russia ranks 5th in the world, which, according to the expert, guarantees the sale of virtually any volume of metal products by Russian companies on the world stage. Domestic consumption accounts for about 60 percent of the metal produced.

According to Miklashevsky's forecasts, the structure of exports in the metallurgical industry will not change much in 2025. However, against the backdrop of the opening of new metallurgical enterprises in Russia, the development of mineral deposits and the expected recovery of the Chinese real estate market, there will be an increase in the volume of metal product exports by approximately 1.2 percent. Some domestic metallurgists have established the production of high-quality world-class rolled metal products. Its supplies to the markets of friendly countries will increase the marginality of the industry, the expert believes.