Thailand's influential ex-PM leaves country amid political crisis

According to law enforcement, the 76-year-old billionaire departed from the private terminal of Don Mueang Airport at 19:17 on board the aircraft with the registration T7GTS. Although the route initially indicated Singapore, the aircraft then headed through Malaysia towards the Andaman Sea, and then west. Shinawatra himself later stated on social media that he had planned to undergo a medical examination in Singapore, but due to the "airport closure" he changed the route and flew to Dubai, where he also plans to "meet friends" and undergo consultations with orthopedic and respiratory specialists.

Thaksin Shinawatra had previously been in exile in London and Dubai for 15 years, avoiding a prison sentence for abuse of power and conflict of interest. In 2023, he unexpectedly returned to Thailand, on the same day that a representative of his party became prime minister. His eight-year sentence was reduced to one year by royal pardon, and he spent the entire time after his return not in prison, but in a VIP ward of a hospital. He was released on parole in February 2024.

However, a Supreme Court hearing is scheduled for September 10 to decide whether the time spent in hospital counts as part of his sentence. If not, Shinawatra could be remanded in custody.

His sudden departure from the country coincided with a political crisis. The Pheu Thai party founded by Thaksin has been at the center of the crisis since the Constitutional Court on Aug. 30 ousted Prime Minister Pathongtan Shinawatra, Thaksin's daughter, who had been in power for less than a year. It was the sixth time in the past 20 years that members or allies of the Shinawatra clan have been removed from the government by military intervention or court decisions.

The Phyo Thai party has urgently nominated Chaikasem Nitisiri, a former attorney general and experienced lawyer but without significant ministerial experience, as its candidate for prime minister. He will compete against Anutin Charnvirakul, the leader of the Bhumjaithai party, who has also been formally nominated for the post of prime minister.

Voting in the House of Representatives began at 11:35 a.m. local time on Friday. After an hour of debate, MPs voted to consider the election of prime minister as a matter of priority, with 313 votes in favor and 142 against. The candidate must be on the party's list of potential prime ministers, have the support of at least 50 MPs and secure an absolute majority of votes – at least 247 out of 494.

However, the start of the procedure was delayed, with MPs debating whether time would be given to discuss the candidates, as had been the case with Pita Limjarenrat, Sretta Taweesin and Pathongtan Shinawatra. After lengthy discussions, it was decided to allow debate, although the issue of time limits remained unresolved.

Experts say that amid mounting pressure from the opposition and uncertainty within Phyo Thai itself, the party's position, which has won five of the last six elections, remains precarious. The outcome of the vote for a new prime minister, like the fate of Thaksin Shinawatra, could play a decisive role in the future political balance in Thailand.