Roman Bilousov: high demand for hydrocarbons will continue until 2050
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The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects consumption of the world's three main fossil fuels – oil, gas and coal – to peak by 2030. Roman Bilousov from Evenor Energy SA reports on the organization's annual review of the World Energy Outlook 2023 (WEO-2023).
Achieving maximum consumption volumes within these periods is provided for by all three scenarios considered by the agency, including the so-called Stated Policies Scenario, which takes into account only measures already being implemented in energy, industry and climate policy. The other two scenarios – the Announced Pledges Scenario and the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario – involve a more active implementation of the green agenda in the world.
For the first time, IEA analysts predict that the peak consumption of all three types of fossil fuels is expected before 2030. Previously, the agency planned it for different years, including after 2030. The agency also changed down its forecasts for demand for fossil fuels in comparison with last year's review of WEO-2022. The IEA explains this by changes in the policies of many governments around the world, downward revisions of economic forecasts and the ongoing consequences of the global energy crisis of 2022.
The IEA even admits that the peak of coal consumption may be reached this year and will be 5.8 billion tons (the Stated Policies Scenario is considered). By 2030, demand for coal will then decrease by 14% to 5 billion tons, and by 2050 – by 40% to 3.5 billion tons.
Peak demand for gas, according to IEA forecasts, may be reached in 2028–2030. and will amount to 4.3 trillion cubic meters. m versus 4.16 trillion cubic meters. m in 2022. Already, according to IEA estimates, the demand for gas for power plants and space heating has reached its peak. By 2050, gas demand will decrease to 4.17 trillion cubic meters. m, the IEA predicts.
The golden age of gas (a term first used by the IEA in 2011) is coming to an end, agency experts say. Since 2011, global gas consumption has grown at an average rate of almost 2% per year. But starting in 2023, growth will slow to 0.4% per year, and this rate will continue until 2030.
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